The seasonal force meets a contradictory COT report. You are in.

The bulls of the gold market have been waving in 2022, when prices began to have a tendency for $ 2,000 per ounce, finally leaving. Until July 2025, gold had $ 3,509.9 all the time, based on the charts of nearby futures contracts. The trade from $ 1,618 to 117% from $ 1,222 began to be aggressively shopping during the October 2022 plans and continued until September 2024. I will appreciate the current commitment of the Merchants (COT) report.

The help of mining companies and central banks also benefits. The miners like Newmont (NEM) had revenues in the previous quarter for $ 5.01 billion, which increased by $ 4.023 billion worth $ 24.023 billion. In 2024, the Central Bank accumulated significant gold as part of their reserve diversification strategy for global economic uncertainties and currency instability. According to the World Golden Council, the number of gold reserves was about 1,045 meters. This was celebrated for the third year in a row, when the Central Bank’s gold purchases exceeded 1,000 tons, according to geopolitical tensions, risks of inflation and strategic retreat. This rally awarded and those who pursue rapid profit and protected against economic uncertainty.

Both events are marked with more high gold prices. First of all, the procurement of the Central Bank will continue, during which the China People’s Bank continues to buy its 2024 purchase. The amount of gold reported by PBOC is difficult to narrow down due to the underestimation of Chinese gold purchases, which makes the exact amount difficult. Second, the weekend reports that the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will resign, if President Trump expresses his desire to replace more DOVISH FED President. This will lead to lower interest rates in the US dollar, which is for gold prices.

However, one event could frustrate gold buyers. If Powell resigns, and the new president abruptly reduces short-term interest rates, markets can perceive it as a highly inflationary agreement due to the current economy and employment. By increasing the loss of crops (TLT), expecting this growth in inflation. This will be the main method of gold investors / traders, as gold usually underestimates high interest rate environments. Facility can face short-term losses, while Hedgers could see a reduced urgency for gold if the stability of the US dollar returns.

Source: Barchart

Technically, gold is still on top of the long run. The table of the week shows how gold has consistently sold 50 weeks of simple moving average (SMA) since 2000 violations. The current bull market trades in extreme distances from 50, which leads to fears that the price can return to its middle to correct several coats in the market. Trend followers still respected these socks that they were selling what they saw did it and don’t try to predict what he can do.

I wish I could say that this lift is now in strong hands that manage money, but I can’t. The following graphics will help explain my words.

Source: CME GROUP EXCHANGE

For the managed money, the COT report shows how the price (yellow line) was low and started on the rise in 2022. Since gold prices have risen, each new high-ranking welcomed the purchase of new managed money (blue bar). However, in 2024, the higher the most managed money increased their gross long positions at every new high price of gold. Seeing the price rally and the managed amount that restrains aggressive purchases, I am interested in all these new purchases.

Source: CME GROUP EXCHANGE

I checked traders and exchange sellers who did not have any price, and then not the reports and found aggressive buyers. Unfortunately, uncoordinated traders rarely have the power to remain previously marked traders. Non-accountable does not mean that they are only retail traders, but can be larger speculators with the size of the reporting level contracts. Non-reportables have continued to buy new heights in gold until the last all time level. I do not consider this to be a signal, but it is reported that it can’t be a lot to create a cascade at the prices of gold market, as small traders are in a hurry at the same time. Non-journalists have done well, pushing these prices higher, and the trend continues. I only wanted to specify this COT report question as a yellow flag of caution.

According to I wrote, the gold market had a significant step, and some of what I mentioned could raise high prices. While I definitely believe in Trend, I like to be aware of the upcoming events that can affect the market I choose for trading.

From July to early September, gold had significantly significant steps. MOORE Research Center, Inc. (MRCI) has widely studied the gold market. Resulting in this potential business opportunity.

As an important reminderAnd seasonal forms can show valuable ideas, they should not be the basis for trade decisions. Merchants should take into account different technical and basic indicators, risk management strategies and market conditions for informed and balanced trading decisions.

Source: MRCI

MRCI searches with minimal seasonal patterns and patterns during the seasonal period. After all, who wants to sit on the way to possible profit through significant delays. Gold has followed its 15-year-old 15-year pattern (blue line) from the beginning of the year. March usually sees some kind, side or down. Since then, the gold market traded. Is it ready to start a rally at the bottom of its seasonal July?

I have added the relational force index (RSI) in the seasonal table. In UPRNENDS, it is not unusual for markets to enter and end when RSI returns to 50%. The gold market had these corrections three, each of which sees a price leap. Gold starts with its July seasonal purchase window, and RSI is open 50%. Chance.

The MRCI survey found that gold was lighter in December about August 23 than on July 24, for 12, 80%. During this time, four years have never had a decrease in everyday closure. During the hypothetical test, the gold was about 47 points, $ 4,700 for the winning trading window.

Source: MRCI

In the past, future traders could take these steps using the standard size contract (GC) or micro-size (gr) contracts, and joint stock traders can use the exchange fund (ETF) symbol (GLD). In addition, investors could buy physical gold on the spot.

Although the army agreement is more affordable than GC for many traders, there is still considerable demand for a small gold contract from the retail base. To answer this request, the CME Group launched a 1-ounce gold futures agreement, on January 13, 2025, aimed at the retail customer.

The features of the new gold agreement are as follows:

• The amount of contract is 1 ounce

• Pricing. USD and cents for one ounce

• Marking size: $ 0.25 (Note GC and GC contracts are $ 0.10)

• A symbol of trade. 1oz

• Maternity months. February, April, Jun, August, October and December

• Settlement method. Cash:

1oz Contract features allow traders to follow the price of gold more accurately. 1oz futures are directly related to the price, offering an accurate market effect.

The bulls of the gold market have enjoyed a remarkable run, July 2025, July 2025, July 2025, July 2025, July 1, 2025, July 1, 2025. The procurement of the Central Bank, in 2024, is 1,045 meters of tons, for the Golden Golden Council and geopolitical tensions, as US-global trade disputes continue to cause demand. However, headscarves are possible. The indicators face short-term risks, if the spike brings, while Hedgers can see less gold need if the dollar’s stability returns. The commitment of the Merchants (COT) report causes caution, showing uncoordinated traders, non-managed money by driving the last heights, according to each CME group. These smaller players, July 2025, are missing the power of remaining greater-capitalized wallets, giving a signal to sharp sales.

Seasonal, gold July-September-September 23, according to August 23, supports the bulls, especially due to the relative force, related to the capacity of the past. However, traders must weigh it against technical preference, as gold trade exceeds its 50-week average. The new 1-ounce gold futures contract (1oz), which began on January 13, 2025, offers cash-accessed, affordable means, standard (GC) and micro (g) contracts. The alloters can capitalize about instability, while Hedgers receive an accurate effect on protection from economic uncertainty. Despite the risks, the trend remains a jacket, but the traders must control the moves of Cot and the changes are fed to potential corrections.

Don Dawson (directly or indirectly) did not have positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. In this article, all information and data are exclusively for information purposes. This article was originally published in Barchart.com