Rising sea peak masks of trade and economic uncertainty

Table of the week. Import Ocean Teus Volume Index – USA SONAR. Ioti.usa

The reservation of the volume for the container imports, as measured by the inbound Ocean Teus index (ioti), seems to be reached in early July, about a month before the typical peak consignment season. Although “Typical” has become a relative term in recent years due to cargo transportation and more and more normalized behavior, this early top gives valuable insight into which transport markets can expect for the remnant of 2025.

IOTI is a 14-day moving average, which is the equivalent of twenty-legs (TEU) containers that arrive at US ports around the world. Although it is generally monitoring sustainable seasonal patterns, 2025 has seen a significant impact on the developing trade war initiated by the current administration due to US trade and assistance.

IOTI has reached a high-year-old high level, about 4% higher than the last year, which took place at 5,273, on August 5, 2024.

However, this does not necessarily mean the demand for stronger goods compared to the last year. Part of this volume growth, probably, reflects earlier recovery from lost time, when the tariffs for prohibiting Chinese import costs in April and early perspective. Many Importers have stopped the purchases of the largest foreign trade partner in the United States due to tall expenses, which led to 15% IOTI decline in May.

When the tariffs have been suspended (currently expires in August), the cargo carriers quickly resumed the order, both to make deferred cargo transportation.

This situation presents a two-way sword for many companies. On the one hand, the tariffs raise direct import costs. On the other hand, they contribute to a wide range of economic uncertainty and can suppress consumers’ demand. To what extent will this commercial war affect the broader economy?

So far, it clearly shocked the mood, as it can be seen with many consumers and business trust index. While the job market seems healthy, the deeper analysis reveals strong weakness. According to ADP, the rental of private sector was terminated in June, leading to net loss of jobs. May retail sales also softened that many economists predict further weakening in the second half of the year, as the entire influence of tariffs start filtering prices.

Although government employees thanked the state and local rental, the trend may be overestimated, as the population of people has been labor in recent months.

All this uncertainty left the supply network managers in a difficult position, balance how much inventory it would cost, and how much they need, because they should actually be.

The list of bookstorms has increased to some extent this year, although since the last summer they have followed a total trend. It is more important that inventory costs are even faster in rims and storage costs. This pressure can suppress import volumes in the coming months, as companies weigh the costs of unnecessary inventory against more stable economic and policy conditions.

Marine carriers seem to expect a softer demand. The early signs of empty reef appeared in response to decline reservations.

The Ocean Rejection Index, which was found in the Atlas application in Sonar containers, shows recently rejected shipping. Although this is a small sample that can reflect short-term fluctuations, it can also assume that the carriers begin to manage the ability to prevent the interest rate.

This early top of import cannot signal the power in the same way when it did. Still this does not mean that the shallow transport will weaken in the second half of the year. Inventory costs can later result in lean inventory, which prompts more last minute orders. In such an environment, demand forecasts tend to lose accuracy, exercising additional pressure on transport networks to remain agile and responsible.

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Early in the early morning, the masks of commercial and economic uncertainty appeared on the growth of trade and economic uncertainty.

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